Novel prediction of Asian Hornet invasion range and impact
Alice Fournier  1@  , Morgane Barbet-Massin  1@  , Quentin Rome  2@  , Claire Villemant  3@  , Colin Fontaine  4@  , Franck Courchamp  5@  
1 : Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution  (ESE)  -  Website
AgroParisTech, Université Paris XI - Paris Sud, CNRS : UMR8079
bat. 362 91405 ORSAY CEDEX -  France
2 : Muséum national d'histoire naturelle  (MNHN)  -  Website
Ministère de l'Ecologie, du Développement Durable et de l'Energie, Ministère de l'Enseignement Supérieur et de la Recherche, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN)
57, rue Cuvier - 75231 Paris Cedex 05 -  France
3 : Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité  (ISYEB)  -  Website
Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN), CNRS : UMR7205, Université Pierre et Marie Curie [UPMC] - Paris VI, École Pratique des Hautes Études [EPHE], Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) - Paris VI
45 rue Buffon, 75005 Paris -  France
4 : Centre d'écologie et de sciences de la conservation  (CESCO)  -  Website
CNRS : UMR7204, Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC) - Paris VI, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle (MNHN)
55 rue Buffon 75005 PARIS -  France
5 : Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution  (ESE)  -  Website
Université Paris Sud - Paris XI, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS, AgroParisTech
UMR 8079 - Bat 362 - Université Paris Sud, Orsay 91405 -  France

Honey bees and wild pollinators play a key role in the pollination of crops and wild plants worldwide. Their populations are currently experiencing drastic declines, due to interactions between multiple stressors: habitat loss and fragmentation, use of pesticides, climate change, pathogens and alien species. The invasion of Europe by the Asian Hornet (Vespa velutina) represents an emerging yet rapidly growing additional threat for pollinators. The hornet has already invaded a large part of France and is now spreading over the rest of Europe at an exceptionally high speed, and it is recognized as a major predator of bees. To improve the prediction of its potential future distribution, with respect to classical Species Distribution Models, I used specifically tailored predictive variables. Instead of the 19 bioclimatic variables classically used for any species, I created original expert knowledge based variables (climatic, land use and biotic inteactions), shaped according to the hornet's biological requirements. I used a combination of metrics to evaluate each variable predictive power. Since each variable type affects invasibility at a different spatial scale, I used a hierarchical procedure, applying variables successively at the scale at which they are the most influential, to obtain the final prediction. This model represents a powerful tool to identify the regions at risk of invasion by the hornet and to to help managers target areas where action is needed in priority.


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