Precipitation Reconstruction from Tree Rings for the Aures Region in Northern Algeria
Said Slimani  1, *@  , Ramzi Touchan  2@  , Dalila Kherchouche  3@  , Arezki Derridj  1@  , Emilia Gutiérrez  4@  
1 : Université Mouloud Mammeri Tizi Ouzou - UMMTO (ALGERIA)  -  Website
B.P. N° 17 RP 15000, Tizi Ouzou -  Algérie
2 : University of Arizona  (UA)  -  Website
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, 1215 E. Lowell Street, Building No. 45B, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA -  États-Unis
3 : Université Hadj Lakhdar Batna (ALGERIA)
Département d'Agronomie, Institut des Sciences Vétérinaires et des Sciences Agronomiques, Batna 05000. -  Algérie
4 : Universitat de Barcelona  (UB)  -  Website
Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Biología, Av. Diagonal, 645, 08028 Barcelona -  Espagne
* : Corresponding author

An October–June precipitation reconstruction for the period AD 1761-2009 was developed from multicentury tree-ring record of Cedrus atlantica Manetti (Atals cedar) for the Aurès region in northern Algeria. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 56% of the variance of observed precipitation. Calibration and verification statistics for the instrumental period 1931-2009 show a high level of skill. Split-sample validation supports temporal stability of the tree-ring signal for precipitation. Key features of the reconstruction reveal the magnitude of pre-instrumental droughts from the historic record. Remarkably, the most recent drought appears to be the worst since at least the middle of the 18th century which affected the regeneration of Atlas cedar forest.


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