Why and how include land use change modelling in regional land planning? Example from a French Mediterranean Region
Mathilde Hervé  1@  , Cecile Albert  2@  , Alberte Bondeau  2@  , Thierry Tatoni  2@  
1 : Institut Mediterraneén de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale  (IMBE)
OT Med
2 : Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale  (IMBE)  -  Website
INEE, Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse, Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS : UMR7263, INSB, INSU
Aix Marseille Université, Campus Etoile, Faculté St-Jérôme case 421 Av. . escadrille Normandie-Niemen 13397 MARSEILLE CEDEX 20 -  France

Regional land planning use data on land use and land cover to design future protected areas (Vimal et al, 2012). Because of the potentially far-reaching consequences of this identification of priority areas, including expected future land use in the diagnostic permits to propose more robust and reliable results for conservation managers. Many maps of possible future land use and land cover have been produced in the last years, following various scenarios (Dendoncker et al, 2007, Rounsevell et al, 2006, Verburg et al, 2010). How to use these different possible maps in future land planning remains nervertheless an issue. Here, we present some ways to mobilize global scenarios for a regional land planning in the Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur Region (France). First, we propose a way to test the likelihood of future land use and land cover maps for the regions with comparison with the past trends. Second, we use some of these scenarios to develop a participative approach. Using workshops with stakeholders at local and regional scale, some scenarios and maps can be design by stakeholders themselves. Technological scenarios and participative scenarios can be finally compare to determine future issues for biodiversity conservation in this region.


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